The future of technology brought to you by the letter “S”

Posted: 2013/03/26 by Punkonomics (@dearbalak) in Uncategorized

#Bryanalexander comments on one of my favorite fiction author (Charles Stross) making some interesting political-economic points
Original: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2013/02/political-failure-modes-and-th.html

Bryan Alexander

Maybe the long boom of technological disruption will slow down, ponders sf writer Charlie Stross.

We are undeniably living through the era of the Great Acceleration; but it’s probably[*] a sigmoid curve, and we may already be past the steepest part of it. [link in original]

Ah yes, that famous S-curve.  Slow to start, fast to build, massive in effect, then ultimately tapering off, like so:

So we can imagine the tide of industrial-technological change rising in the 1700s, roaring into life during the 1800s, turning into a transformational riptide through the twentieth century, and then, in the 21st, gradually… slowing… down.  The rate of innovation drops.  We become accustomed to the new.  Future shock stops shocking.

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